Our c,mm,n Future
From c,mm,n
Contents |
A vision of our c,mm,n future
This text is a snippet from the graduation report by Jacco Lammers. If you are interested in reading the full report, please let me know by sending an e-mail to . I'm thinking of making a public (hardcopy) version of it when there is demand. At least I can send you a digital copy. Just let me know!
Introduction
A living cell is interdependent with its environment (other cells) that provides him with energy and other resources. Under the presence of a catalyst, the cell processes this input into something else. The resulting matter is input for other systems again. With this process, the cell creates the conditions for its own existence; a function within its context. Within the cell, smaller parts perform processes. Within their context these parts can be considered systems again. All these systems are interconnected and have feedback loops to adjust to new context developments. Biologist now generally assume that the power houses of cells, the mitochondria, have descended from separate so-called ‘eukaryotic’ cells, similar to bacteria. They have their own DNA and have migrated into the cells, thus short cutting the process of power supply. Living cells show how collaboration is more than the sum of its parts.Thinking in a holistic way about mobility is thinking about relationships. Relationships between stake holders, between events or between technology and people. In this report a car is viewed like a cell. It has input and output and a function within its context. This report considers processes that can be short-cut, feedback loops that are non-existent and the conditions for the existence of automobility. In order to create a complete and manageable view of the future of automobility, a vision is developed. Through vision development a mission statement is created that serves as the basis for the brand and the service-product. The vision includes the construction of a context for 2006 and 2020. The mission statement takes position within the context of 2020 and guides further developments. This results in brand values that describe the way the brand interacts with people.
Method
For vision development The VIP Method is used. This method is developed by Prof.ir.M.B.van Dijk and Prof.dr.P.P.M.Hekkert. at the faculty of Industrial Design Engineering at the Delft University of Technology. Vision in Product Design aims at developing products in a way that is natural to people. Through deconstructing an object and place it with its user in a context where it has a meaning, it creates insight in what a new product has to ‘do’ in a future context. Using the metaphor of the living cell, the car is a cell performing a function within its context under the presence of the catalyst ‘people’.
Analysis Many keynotes were found in the structure of open-source software. The analysis of open-source software and existing possible approaches to related ways of product development provides input for the vision development. It has input on the domain, the old context and finds factors for the new context.
Domain To keep track of the project goal it is useful to define a domain. The limits of influence of the project are defined here, so solutions are directed to something within the scope of the project. The domain is established by the assignment and the analysis. The domain acts as the cell-wall for this project.
Deconstructing This step looks at the original product and deconstructs it, establishing the interaction between the user and the product and showing its functions. It helps people in abstracting their current image of product within this world. Because this assignment is already formulated on an abstract level, this is already secured and this step is not given priority.
Old context The meaning of the original product for its user in its original context is established in the context for 2006. Here context factors can be distinguished: developments and trends are dynamic factors, while states and principles are static. This step provides an insight in ‘what the product did’. Input for the old context is found from an expert meeting and the analysis.
New context This step establishes a new world (of the future) where some of the factors mentioned in the old context might have changed or new factors have emerged. These new context factors interact and shape a new context. In order to shape a context within a short period of time, a ‘Delphi’ method is used. This means that experts help determine the context factors. These are combined with information from the analysis and put into a context vision that is proposed to the experts again for feedback.
Context Statement An important step follows: we determine what is our reaction, or statement, in this new context. What do we want the product to do? This results in a vision statement and a product meaning: what we want people to [verb] and how we want our product to accomplish that.
Brand values: user-product interaction People interact on different levels with a brand. These interactions should be compatible and coherent. Brand values define how people interact with the brand and its products in general. For both the service and car this becomes more specific using more defined characteristics.
Product characteristics The product (-service) is defined using the mission statement and brand values and looking at how people would use the product accordingly within the context. This creates a product character and an intended use. In the car this is further defined into features and specifications.
Domain
The domain forms the border of the assignment. This means that a limit is set to what can and what can’t be involved. The domain is mainly set in the assignment, but also includes aspects from the analysis.
Time frame: 2020
It is almost impossible to envision a world that is more than ten years from now. Think of the difference between 1996 and now with developments like mobile phones, internet and cheap airline tickets. Still, this time frame does provide a limit to the technology and the infrastructure that is available. So flying cars are ruled out, I’m sorry.
Subject: Individual mobility
With individual mobility every way of collective mobility such as public transport is ruled out. This is given by the fact that cars will remain important, if not, the most important means of transport.
Location: Densely populated Europe
In order to provide a ‘mainstream’ solution that can be appealing to the international press, Europe was chosen as domain. Mainly the non rural areas that inhabit the largest amount of people.
Limitations: Infrastructure
One of the reason that cars will remain important is the low speed of change in infrastructure. The mobility concept must therefore be able to cope with the current infrastructure possibly with changes to the surrounding information system.
Challenge: Sustainable and appealing
For a car to be truly sustainable it must also be sold. Therefore the challenge of this assignment is in creating individual mobility that is sustainable and appealing for consumers. The concept will be shown at the AutoRAI and must be presentable and attractive to that public.
Mainstream
In order to make a mobility concept that is appealing and credible, it should be comparable to a mainstream solution now. That means something comparable in meaning to a VW Golf.
This domain still leaves a lot of space for development. Gradually new limitations will arise in the project.
Context 2006
1908, when the first Ford Model T rolled out of the factory, was the beginning of a new era of mobility. Where the car had been a toy to the rich an wealthy it now became affordable to anyone. In 1934, André Citroën took this further and introduced the all-steel unibody car to the masses in the shape of the beautiful Traction-Avant. The basics of this chassis were actually invented by the American engineer Edward G. Budd several years before. The technology of a point welded pressed steel sheet chassis made cars lighter and even more affordable. After this, slowly the car market took off and left all the ‘old’ coach builders and chassis workshops for dead. The number of car makers dropped from thousands to only a hand full. Sales changed from custom build-to-order to dealerships and centralized production capacity.In the eighties the world went out of oil and the Japanese took their share. With their Kaizen method they could produce cars that were so efficient and of such quality that people forgave them their ugliness. Somewhere around that last push the markets went satisfied and competition started to claim casualties.Branding started to come up and the number of models increased to serve ‘niche’ markets. MPV’s emerged, and platform strategies made brands share technology. All investments were aimed at the economy of scale in a saturated market: (unit) cost reduction, perceived quality and performance.
The Lock-in
Just short of a 100 years later, Ford is still around but the giant is in big trouble. Just as VW, GM and what is left over of the once so brilliant British car industry. Nowadays around 95% of the cars has a unibody ‘Budd’ chassis. It has a strong relationship with the steel industry and they employ hundreds of thousands of people. The car industry has reached the point in which all markets above 120.000 cars a year are served. It has invested huge amounts of money in steel sheet presses and its dealer network. The stagnating market and increased competition (Korea and now china) makes companies look for a solution. This has led to mergers, lay-offs and differentiation. The investments and partnerships make it difficult to introduce radical new technologies and business models. History has created a lock-in from which escape is difficult.In terms of biology, the car industry can be seen as a complex organism that has developed its own DNA. Therefore it is difficult to develop new species. Changes are slow and occur on a lower level (colours, shapes).
Leasing
In the fifties leasing started as a cost effective way of driving a car. The car manufacturers build their cars and sold them. Lease companies would provide the service that went with that. But as their dealer network expanded and margins decreased, car manufacturers started to throw in these services with the product to regain their profits. That made lease companies move towards bundling their services. They can offer big companies the same contracts for a fleet of cars of any brand. Supported by their economy of scale they are able to offer discounts and remain attractive partners for companies. As competition increased in the past, lease companies were forced to become more transparent in their contracts. Still, leasing remains in the first place a financially attractive solution. ICT has in general improved the efficiency of lease companies and is seen as an opportunity. Economy of scale is again an important aspect to be able to carry the large investments in ICT. The internet also is a threat: second hand cars market have become cheaper because of the increased transparency of the market. There is a trend towards environmental consciousness and social responsibility within companies. This reflects into several initiatives that serve this demand. The focus is on solutions that offer improvements without extra costs. Regulations with respect to dealership exclusivity have created new opportunities for the lease market. Still, lease companies are dependent on the power of importers and car manufacturers. Although repair and maintenance has shifted more towards chains, the dealerships are still the driver’s point of contact.Athlon Car Lease is good at cleverly organising automobility. The skill of the people in operations have acquired great efficiency that the sales department is able to capitalise.
The Car Myth
In the mean time, the car has claimed a spot next to our hearts and its myth of freedom is still alive in all the marketing practises. Shiny polished cars with alpha males on the steering wheel are driving alone on winding roads, momentarily forgetting the effects of the car on the public domain.Somewhere in the eighties Europe has embraced no-nonsense capitalism and tuned itself to individualistic hedonism. Margaret Thatcher, Yups and even the ‘do-it-yourself’ punk culture is still found today in the social acceptance of the expression of individualism. The car is a splendid expression of individual power and wealth. It is also a place to come home to, something that absorbs our attention like a video game. We can momentarily forget our daily trouble. It is the moment of tranquillity between the boss and the wife. You can pick your nose, sing out of tune with your music without anyone commenting on it. In the days of the T Model, the car was the ultimate embodiment of freedom. And the infrastructure that was put into place to enable this freedom was so good that everyone started to use it. The results are known: pollution, noise, accidents, parking space, etc. To counter the effects, governments have increasingly bound the car to regulations. But, because people don’t want their car to be touched, these have focused on the car manufacturers. Legislation has made cars become safer to their inhabitants and pedestrians, but is also enforcing lower emissions.The governments embody the great contradictions that modern car has to face. They represent the drivers that love their cars so much. But on the other side, all these drivers together actually need speed cameras and 60% taxes on fuel to protect them from themselves. Everybody wants to solve these contradictions, but no one really wants to pay. That has lead to the short term solutions we are used to: particle filters, labels, subsidies. Companies contribute their share by spending money on programs that contribute to ‘social responsibility and environmental consciousness’. These are all good things, but they can’t counter the effects of the car on the public domain.
Context Vision 2006
The dominant pattern of 2006 is characterised by a protective hedonism that aims to maintain acquired rights of individuality. No-nonsense individualistic capitalism expresses itself as empowerment through delay. The lack of answers for the conflicts between economic, ecological and social concerns have made people turn to single dimension and temporary solutions. Actions focus on sub problems like particle filters or CO2 emissions. Solutions to these problems cost money and do not solve the actual problem. Time is bought with end-of-pipe and subsidised solutions. With a focus on short term concerns people are struggling with deep meaning and turn to short term benefits. The counter movement is characterised by Calvinism. Obscure, left extremist tree hugging groups that preach anti globalism and a return to basics. They see how the effects of economic growth have had their influence on the public domain. Their voice is heard more and more and there is an evident concern with for example the ecological effects of economic growth. People are searching for answers, but waiting for the answers they settle with empowerment through delay.
Context 2020
The car boots up as its owner approaches. They both know what is about to happen. The voice-over tells us how the time saving communication abilities enable the young dad to get in contact with his daughter while he drives towards his client. Welcome home.
Controlled Networked Society
ICT will reach a maturity stage in 2020. The technologies to create high speed connections both wireless and wired are available and are being implemented at high speeds. Standards to open up and connect data on the web are ready to be accepted and applied. The effect will be a bridge between the tangible world and the virtual world in which chips are able to understand relationships between data. Products will communicate with each other and people’s profiles will exist in multiple connected databases. As an ongoing development, people will have a larger range of communication tools. Every means of communication serves a different level of intensity and involvement. The levels of communication differ in the amount of control a user has over its access and expression. But although tools improve, close personal contact is always maintained in personal encounters. The effect can best be described as ‘clustering’. Through connecting uniform databases and advanced data mining, it is possible to create clusters of similar concerns. The global network of communication increasingly separates relationships from geographic locations. Clustering predominantly takes place virtually. People with similar concerns cluster actively (Web 2.0) or passively (Web 3.0) and use their shared wisdom and collective scale to get what they want on demand. The parallel virtual world will be socially accepted and closely relate to the real world. Here people meet, become friends and have sex. Together with the principle of scale economics this leads to ‘geo-clusters’ that are equipped to serve similar concerns in the ‘real world’. Europe is characterised by a densely populated rural areas. The smaller cities and bigger villages will collaborate and create networks of clustered activities. Mega movie theatres, supermarkets, suburbs, but also specialist retail shops like ‘Oils and vinegars’ are good examples of clustering that has already taken place. Like a mobile phone or Skype, individual mobility is an enabling tool in connecting clusters. People maintain control over their network through selectively using these tools. Communication tools, as a part of the infrastructure, will become a more worthy alternative to the car. This doesn’t mean people will travel less. The need for personal contact remains and the car is the most ‘on demand’ solution to personal contact. It will make mobility demand spread over the day. And more people will travel more kilometres with more cars. This results in traffic jams during the whole day, limited parking space and other nuisance. The networked society creates great opportunities for society, but also has its effects on the public domain. Being able to have knowledge of the structures at work, combined with the possibility to adapt quickly and having everything on demand can make people real ‘networked citizens’ with control and responsibility over their lives.
Economizing Sustainability
While mobility demand will continue to rise, resources become scarce. With the rules of offer and demand, this will result in the increase of costs of resources. Many of these resources come from politically unstable regions. Therefore costs rise even further with the possibility of a conflict. On top of that, more often governments implement a ‘polluter pays’ principle to internalise environmental effects. These developments make it attractive for commercial parties to become stake holders in this development. By offering solutions that are region independent, resource efficient and with little regulatory costs they capitalize on the uncertainty that is created by these developments. This will result in more ‘service oriented products’ in which a company takes control over the product life cycle and with that raises efficiency. Logically research and development will aim at resource efficiency and independency. For consumers this means a shift from ‘owning’ to ‘using’. The marketing strategies will keep focusing on the ‘other’ benefits of sustainable products. The main benefit both to consumers and companies will be economic. A sustainable approach also holds for socio-economic matters. As mass production has been taken over by Asian countries at lower costs, ‘simple’ jobs have gone away. Europe is moving towards a ‘knowledge economy’ exporting highly skilled services, research and education. In 2020 long term externalities are internalised through economic incentives. This drives up the costs for mobility, making it a concern of an imminent nature. We notice this as we spend more and more money on our gasoline or train tickets. This results in economic and ecological concerns that overlap more often.
The Icon Car
As a result of the two previous sets of context factors, the icon car is deteriorating. The meaning it has to people is under pressure by social and environmental issues and its costs. People have become dependent on a system that was never intended for its current use. People born after 1985 have not known the empty roads that have been available for long. The costs of ownership will lead to a generation of people that will only drive a lease car and never own a car themselves. Controlling something that is bigger than yourself is an important factor of a car. But the developments of active safety systems make it very possible that a lot of control is left to computers in 2020. Governments or insurance companies will make sure that their costs of injuries and fatalities are related to the use of these systems. While cars now stand for the ultimate freedom, for people in 2020, the opposite will be reality. They need the solution for it is on-demand personal contact, but its meaning as the embodiment of freedom is more and more lost. What remains for ‘normal people’ is a superficial expression of status through the exterior of the car. The urge for freedom will remain and people that can afford it will buy their way into it. With separate ‘pay lanes’, circuit racing and cars with enormous insurance costs per kilometre -but without control systems- the rich will keep on feeling free. This connects status to the ‘use’ of a product instead of owning it.
Context Vision 2020
The context of 2020 shows two developments that deteriorate the icon car. The controlled networked society (CNS) and economizing sustainability (ES) will decrease the meaning of the car. Although the CNS and ES have no actual relationship as such, they have a similar way of being dealt with. Both movements are characterised by a network structure. By connecting economizing sustainability to the controlled networked society it becomes a system that has social, economic and ecological effects. Taking control over relationships within their network creates meaning to people, but an individual hedonistic life style is difficult to maintain within this context. This will result in a trend of people returning to values they are familiar with (religion, family, local communities, etc.) to retrieve the meaning they lost and gain control over their local networks. The counter movement fully embraces the interconnectivity and starts forming ad hoc clusters. These clusters are powerful global patterns that bring back control and meaning to people through their network. Both movements are characterised by empowerment through involvement and participation. In 2020, people want to take control and become masters of their lives.
Arena 2020
In 2020 there are some important differences to the world that surrounds the car. The arena describes these changes. Kilometre tax The Netherlands is a frontrunner with respect to regulations concerning automobility. It is plausible that in 2020, Europe will largely pay taxes for their cars per kilometre. In this system it is possible to demand higher payment for rush hours.
Hydrogen economy Shell has presented a road map towards a hydrogen economy in which they will first introduce bio-fuels and synthetic fuels next to CNG and gasoline. In 2020 it will be possible to get hydrogen at a good amount of pumps.
Connected Internet penetration and especially wireless communication in Western Europe has soared the last few years. The leading ICT trade organisation TIA expects a penetration rate of subsequently 54% internet and 94% wireless communication for 2008 (source: www.tiaonline.org/policy/global/europe, 2006). This means that for 2020 it is very plausible that a very large part of Europe is connected via a broadband connection.
Clusters The European Spatial Development Perspective of 1999 show that Europe has a polycentric system, characterised by rural areas that are relatively densely populated. About 30% of the European population lives in small and medium-sized cities outside the agglomerations. According to this policy “the urban system and the settlement structure of the EU are not likely to change fundamentally in the medium term. Global cities [...] will continue to maintain their pre-eminent positions. New functions and networks may, however, in future have a major impact on the development of individual cities and regions.” And “a key function of spatial development is, therefore, to achieve a better balance between urban development and protection of the open countryside.” [source: http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docoffic/official/reports/pdf/b64-75_en.pdf] The EU is developing more control over spatial planning and is aiming to create interdependent clusters with respect to individual cities and densely populated rural areas.
Mission Statement
The meaning of the car is diminishing. Rather than the individual concerns, the concerns of society are put forward increasingly. This results in the car as a compromise between individual interest and social concerns. With that the car’s embodiment of freedom and control is lost to a large extend. Only a dim trace of the meaning of the car is left.
I believe people are smart enough to decide for themselves what is good and beautiful. Therefore I believe that it is possible to create individual mobility that does provide freedom and control while contributing to a more sustainable world socially, ecologically and economically. In order to do this, we should redefine the icon car.
The relation between the context factors shows that the limiting effect of economizing sustainability and the controlled networked society also has opportunities. The controlled networked society and economized sustainability both benefit from an systems approach.
This creates new meaning to the car where clever use of the limitations within the controlled networked society and costs from economized sustainability give people control. People use their skills to play a role in their network. This is elaborated in the principles of communities in the next chapter.
The key towards the new icon car is collaboration. By giving people the possibility to share knowledge and means, they will be able to make a difference. We consider the tangible object car in a broader context. It is connected to the network and helps people to deal with their future world. It empowers and educates them to find their own solutions, helping them to find new meaning. By creating a community and making information openly available, people can benefit from and contribute to a collective.
We want to empower and educate people to give them more control over their mobility by creating a community that supports people to develop, use and display their skills.
Brand Values
Brand values define the way the brand interacts with people. The values are derived from the statement in the context. The context statement is characterized by education and empowerment. Dealing cleverly with the constraints of modern society makes people form clusters and within be intelligent and creative. This creates a shift from the car being clever towards the user being clever and the community being its foremost tool. Five ‘values’ describe the relationship of the brand with people. These values create a feedback loop and the conditions for the existence of the community. By being generous people will put more trust in the community and become interdependent. The more interdependent they are, the more freedom they will have. Their contributions add to the diversity of the community, thus to its generosity. The two last values are the conditions under which this can take place.
1. We give before we take
communities become more effective with size. In order to invite people to join in, you should make them enthusiasts by being generous. This value breaks down the wall.
2. Freedom through interdependency
being able to depend on the community for specialised tasks, people are able to do what they like best and are good at. With enough people, you’ll always be able to find the expert. This value makes people return to the community for its resources.
3. Quality through diversity
other than having strict ways of deciding what to do, we believe that prototyping helps best. In this way redundancy will exist, but people can judge for themselves what is the best solution. This value activates people to take control.
4. Trust through transparency
in the google age trust comes through being able to explain why you do something. Transparency is a value that will help people put trust in you.
5. Common sense
this leading brand value stands for an educated approach towards sustainable mobility. This value is about asking the right questions and observing different perspectives before judging something. Together with the other values, this creates an honest and trustworthy interaction without losing freedom and creativity.
Interested in the full report?
If you are interested in reading the full report, please let me know by sending an e-mail to . I'm thinking of making a public (hardcopy) version of it when there is demand. At least I can send you a digital copy. Just let me know!
